8 juli 2015
De stand van zaken is dat er in de afgelopen dagen mensen zijn gedood in een aantal wijken door de politie en de geheime politie. Dit lezen we erover in de media. De politie belaagt ’s nachts woningen van aanhangers van de oppositie. Er gaan geruchten dat zij wapens in hun huizen neerzetten en deze vervolgens ‘ontdekken’ om een motief te hebben voor hun optreden. Maar hierbij doden ze mensen, inclusief vrouwen en kinderen. Er is enig bewijs voor gewapend verzet, maar dit zou beperkt zijn. De situatie kan verder uit de hand lopen wanneer actievoerders de politie gaan aanvallen en hun wapens innemen. Alsnog zou dit alleen op kleine schaal kunnen plaatsvinden. Er is geen werkelijk bewijs dat de opposanten tot een serieuze gewapende reactie in staat zijn, al worden zij hier wel toe wel uitgedaagd.
Hieronder plaatsen we de letterlijke berichtgeving vanuit Nederland:
I have discussed the security situation with my local staff and the Dutch embassy, both national and Dutch. There seems to be a consensus which I support:
• Perhaps 2 battalions of the army have deserted, about 1500 men, but they went without taking equipment and perhaps 100 battalions are still in Burundi. The 2 battalions are probably in Rwanda and must be there with the knowledge of the Rwandan government. You cannot hide 1500 people in Rwanda.
• A civil war requires external support but neither Rwanda nor Tanzania nor DR Congo will support a rebel army. Tanzania and Rwanda will not accept a rebel army operating from their territory so the only place from which a rebel army could operate would be the Congolese side of the Ruzizi valley.
• Because they rebels would have to cross the Ruzizi valley, they cannot enter with vehicles or heavy equipment (no bridges other than Gatumba and the road from Gatumba is heavily protected) so small raiding parties conducting guerilla warfare is the only mode of warfare open to them. They could make Cibitoke and Bubanza ungovernable and threaten Bujumbura.
• The president will not lead the country in his 3rd mandate with the support of the people. There will be ongoing small scale attacks, grenades, ambushes.
• To confront the protesters and the risk of a rebel guerilla group, the government will have to keep paying for the army and police and weapons and ammunition.
• The biggest crisis is financial: the government has lost the 50% of the funding of the ministries. Tax receipts have collapsed. The economy will continue to decline, many expats will not be coming back in September, investors will postpone or cancel investments. The value of the FBu will decline against international currencies. But the government must meet the costs of security.
• The reserve bank of Burundi has stated that reserves will be exhausted by end of 2015.
• Loss of foreign investments, external donors, falling tax receipts means less money for those in power to divert to their own pockets. They will want to find a way of encouraging in-flow of hard currency again.
• As soon as the end of 2015, the government will no longer have the financial means to function. They will have to change their policy to restore inward investment and start negotiations with donor nations.
So my expectations is that Burundi will become an oppressive police state in the short term, particularly in Bujumbura and other urban locations. But this is unsustainable and there will have to be a change in 6-12 months.
Verantwoording:
De informatie die is gebruikt voor dit bericht van Kennis zonder Grenzen is verkregen van openbare media.